Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 October 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Oct 04 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed steam. Earlier on 03 October, minor to major storm levels were observed at high latitudes between 0600-1500Z due to this high speed stream. Real-time solar wind speed at ACE reached a maximum of approximately 600 km/s at 04/0102Z and has gradually decreased to approximately 515 km/s at forecast issue time. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet, with isolated unsettled periods early on day one (05 October). Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Oct to 07 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Oct 067
  Predicted   05 Oct-07 Oct  067/067/067
  90 Day Mean        04 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct  009/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Oct  007/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct to 07 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%10%10%
Minor storm10%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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