Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 October 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Oct 17 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods as a
recurrent coronal hole becomes geoeffective. Isolated periods of
minor storming may occur at high latitudes on day three (20 Oct) at
the expected peak of the high-speed stream influence.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Oct 067 Predicted 18 Oct-20 Oct 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 17 Oct 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 008/010-010/012-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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