Viewing archive of Saturday, 17 November 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Nov 17 2246 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 974 (N13W21) was classiefied as a Dao, Beta-Gamma magnetic type at 0300Z. Subsequent reports have identified it as a spotless plage region.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low. There is a slight chance of an isolated C-Class flare from region 974.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain predominantly quiet during 18-19 Nov, increasing to unsettled to occasionally active by 20 Nov as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Nov 070
  Predicted   18 Nov-20 Nov  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        17 Nov 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Nov  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov  005/005-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%25%
Minor storm01%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%35%
Minor storm05%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%10%

All times in UTC

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