Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 December 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Dec 13 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 978 (S08W25) produced a
C4.5/1f event at 13/1003Z. This region has exhibited growth in
white light area coverage and developed a beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 978 remains capable of producing C-class flares
with a slight chance for an isolated low level M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for 14-15 December. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected for 16 December.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Dec to 16 Dec
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Dec 094 Predicted 14 Dec-16 Dec 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 13 Dec 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec 005/005-005/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec to 16 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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