Viewing archive of Wednesday, 19 December 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Dec 19 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. These elevated
conditions were due to a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind
speed at the ACE spacecraft peaked late yesterday between 18/1900Z
and 19/0100Z with maximum values around 700 km/s. Since then solar
wind speed has been steadily declining with values around 600 km/s
at forecast issue time.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet to unsettled levels. However,
there is a chance for isolated active conditions on 20 and 21
December, due to the continued influence of the high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Dec 075 Predicted 20 Dec-22 Dec 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 19 Dec 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec 011/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec 010/010-010/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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