Viewing archive of Friday, 21 December 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Dec 21 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind observations at ACE gradually decreased in velocity from a high of 745 km/s at 20/2128Z to 600 km/s at forecast issue time. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (22-24 December). Isolated active conditions are possible at high latitudes for days 1 and 2 (22-23 December).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Dec 071
  Predicted   22 Dec-24 Dec  070/069/069
  90 Day Mean        21 Dec 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec  010/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Dec  008/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec  008/010-006/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%20%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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