Viewing archive of Sunday, 30 December 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Dec 30 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity was low due to a C1.7 flare observed at 30/2005Z. The most likely origin of the flare was a brightening on the east limb near where old Region 978 (S08, L=223) is expected to return.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low to low. An increasing chance of C-class activity is expected through the forecast period (31 Dec 07 - 2 Jan 08).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
Class M01%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Dec 075
  Predicted   31 Dec-02 Jan  075/075/080
  90 Day Mean        30 Dec 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Dec  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%00%

All times in UTC

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