Viewing archive of Friday, 4 January 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jan 04 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 980 (S06E29) produced one low level B-class flare during the past 24 hours. The region continued to decay and is now classified as a simple Axx sunspot group. New Region 981 (N30E22) is classified as a Cso beta sunspot group. This region is likely a new solar cycle sunspot group. A very faint backsided CME was observed on LASCO C2 imagery at 4/1454Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low. There remains a slight chance for an isolated C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods for the forecast period (5-7 January). Isolated minor storm periods are possible at high latitudes on 7 January.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Jan 079
  Predicted   05 Jan-07 Jan  080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        04 Jan 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan  001/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Jan  001/001
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan  008/008-008/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%30%
Minor storm10%15%20%
Major-severe storm01%05%10%

All times in UTC

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