Viewing archive of Monday, 14 January 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jan 14 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains
spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels under the
influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind
speed at ACE reached 750 km/s during the period. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at unsettled to active levels with isolated storm
periods at high latitudes on Days 1 and 2 (15-16 Jan). The high
speed stream is expected to depart on Day 3 (17 Jan) and activity
levels should diminish to quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jan 076 Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 075/070/070 90 Day Mean 14 Jan 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 014/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 014/015-012/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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