Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 February 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Feb 13 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible
solar disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels, due to continued
effects from a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at
the ACE spacecraft reached a maximum of approximately 690 km/s at
13/1110Z. By the end of the summary period wind speed had declined
to around 620 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached
high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly unsettled levels, with possible isolated
active conditions on all three days (14 - 16 February), due to
continued influence from the coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Feb 071 Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 13 Feb 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 006/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 010/012-010/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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