Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 February 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Feb 13 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible solar disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels, due to continued effects from a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft reached a maximum of approximately 690 km/s at 13/1110Z. By the end of the summary period wind speed had declined to around 620 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly unsettled levels, with possible isolated active conditions on all three days (14 - 16 February), due to continued influence from the coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Feb 071
  Predicted   14 Feb-16 Feb  072/072/072
  90 Day Mean        13 Feb 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb  006/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Feb  010/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb  010/012-010/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%35%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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