Viewing archive of Friday, 29 February 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Feb 29 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 060 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Feb 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. A weak CME was observed at 29/0025Z from STEREO and LASCO imagery in the vicinity of Region 983, which is approaching the west limb at S06. This activity does not appear to be Earth directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm conditions. Solar wind speed remained elevated due to the continued influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately unsettled levels, with isolated active periods for 01-02 March. Conditions are expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 03 March as the high speed stream rotates out of a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Feb 070
  Predicted   01 Mar-03 Mar  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        29 Feb 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb  017/022
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Feb  015/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar  012/015-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%20%10%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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