Viewing archive of Monday, 17 March 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Mar 17 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 077 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 986 (S04W71) has decayed to a single alpha spot. A slow-moving coronal mass ejection was observed off the west limb at 17/0830Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels throughout the forecast period (18 - 20 March). The CME observed today is not expected to be geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Mar 070
  Predicted   18 Mar-20 Mar  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        17 Mar 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Mar  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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