Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 April 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Apr 03 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 094 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Spotless plage Region 989 (S11W41) produced two low-level C-class flares early in the period. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a fair chance for an isolated C-class flare from plage Region 989.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (04 April) with active periods at high latitudes as a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream becomes geoeffective. Activity is expected to increase to active levels on days 2 - 3 (05 - 06 April) with minor to major storm periods at high latitudes as the high-speed stream continues.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Apr 076
  Predicted   04 Apr-06 Apr  075/070/070
  90 Day Mean        03 Apr 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr  001/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Apr  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr  007/010-015/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%40%30%
Minor storm01%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%50%50%
Minor storm05%25%25%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

All times in UTC

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