Viewing archive of Monday, 5 May 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 May 05 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 993 (S31E14) remains a simple bipolar sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominately at quiet to unsettled levels. An isolated active period was observed at middle latitudes between 1500-1800Z. Solar wind velocities, as measured at the ACE satellite, remain elevated at about 625 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for isolated active periods on days 1 and 2 (06 and 07 May) due to the high speed stream. By day 3 (08 May), geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet as the high speed stream abates.
III. Event Probabilities 06 May to 08 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 May ???
  Predicted   06 May-08 May  068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        05 May 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 May  006/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 May  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May  008/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May to 08 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%10%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

All times in UTC

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