Viewing archive of Tuesday, 13 May 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 May 13 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The active region around
the east limb has continued to produce low-level flares during the
past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a chance for B-class flares and a slight chance for
an isolated C-class event from the approaching new region behind the
east limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately at quiet conditions for the next three
day period (14-16 May).
III. Event Probabilities 14 May to 16 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 May 068 Predicted 14 May-16 May 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 13 May 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 May 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May to 16 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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