Viewing archive of Sunday, 18 May 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 May 18 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 994 (S12W22)
increased in complexity briefly becoming a Cso Beta magnetic class.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low. There is a slight chance of a C-class flare, particularly
from Region 994.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from unsettled to active levels over the next
three days, with a chance for minor storm levels at high latitudes
as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 May 072 Predicted 19 May-21 May 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 18 May 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 May 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 May 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May 010/012-015/030-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 09% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 45% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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