Viewing archive of Tuesday, 20 May 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 May 20 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 141 Issued at 2200Z on 20 May 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours. The two spotted regions on the disk were quiet and stable,
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A small increase in solar wind speed from around 360 km/s up to about 440 km/s occurred between 1200-1400Z. The solar wind signatures are consistent with a high speed stream from a coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for isolated minor storm periods for the first day (21 May) as the high speed stream is expected to continue. Observations of the solar wind at the Stereo-B spacecraft suggest that the solar wind velocity should increase to around 550-600 km/s. Activity levels are expected to decline to unsettled levels with occasional active periods for the second day (22 May) and should be predominantly unsettled for the third day (23 May).
III. Event Probabilities 21 May to 23 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 May 069
  Predicted   21 May-23 May  068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        20 May 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 May  005/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 May  010/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May  015/025-008/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 May to 23 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%25%25%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%40%40%
Minor storm35%20%20%
Major-severe storm15%10%10%

All times in UTC

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