Viewing archive of Monday, 21 July 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jul 21 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. Region 1000 (S12W18) is spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active
period from 0900-1200Z. The solar wind data at ACE indicated the
passage of a solar sector boundary. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled on day one (22 July), unsettled to
active on day two (23 July), and mostly unsettled on day three (24
July). The increase in activity is forecast due to the expected
effects of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jul 066 Predicted 22 Jul-24 Jul 066/066/066 90 Day Mean 21 Jul 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 010/010-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 50% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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