Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 August 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Aug 14 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours and the solar disk continues to be spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (15-17 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was initially at high levels but dropped below threshold at 14/0240Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next two days (15-16 August). A small increase to quiet to unsettled is expected for the third day (17 August) in response to a recurrent solar sector boundary crossing.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Aug 066
  Predicted   15 Aug-17 Aug  066/066/066
  90 Day Mean        14 Aug 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug  003/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Aug  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug  005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%15%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%20%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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