Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 September 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Sep 04 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours. The solar disk continues to be spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was initially quiet to unsettled, but activity increased to minor to major storm levels from 0000-0600Z. Active levels prevailed from 0600-1500Z, after which conditions decreased to unsettled levels. The activity was driven by a prolonged period of southward Bz (about -10 nT) occurring together with elevated solar wind speeds. Solar wind velocity continued to rise during the past 24 hours with day-end values near 600 km/s. The solar wind signatures are generally consistent with a high speed stream from a coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the first day (05 September) as the high speed wind stream is expected to continue. Conditions should gradually decline to predominantly unsettled for the second day (06 September) and quiet to unsettled for the third day (07 September).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Sep to 07 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Sep 066
  Predicted   05 Sep-07 Sep  066/066/066
  90 Day Mean        04 Sep 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep  007/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Sep  020/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep  015/020-010/015-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep to 07 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%25%15%
Minor storm25%15%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%30%20%
Minor storm30%20%10%
Major-severe storm15%10%05%

All times in UTC

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