Viewing archive of Tuesday, 30 September 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Sep 30 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. Solar wind speed values measured by the ACE spacecraft began the period at approximately 350 km/s. At around 1130Z on 30 September a Co-rotating Interaction Region (CIR) was observed at ACE. In association with the CIR wind speeds gradually increased to end the period at about 500 km/s with interplanetary magnetic field Bz values ranging between +/- 7 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels with a chance for major storm periods at high latitudes for day one (01 October) of the forecast period. The increase in activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream rotating into a geoeffective position. The coronal hole is expected to remain geoeffective days two and three (02 and 03 October) of the forecast period. However, activity should decrease to quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for isolated active levels at high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Sep 066
  Predicted   01 Oct-03 Oct  066/066/066
  90 Day Mean        30 Sep 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Sep  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct  020/025-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%10%10%
Minor storm25%05%05%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%20%15%
Minor storm30%15%10%
Major-severe storm15%05%01%

All times in UTC

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