Viewing archive of Tuesday, 30 September 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Sep 30 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. Solar wind speed values
measured by the ACE spacecraft began the period at approximately 350
km/s. At around 1130Z on 30 September a Co-rotating Interaction
Region (CIR) was observed at ACE. In association with the CIR wind
speeds gradually increased to end the period at about 500 km/s with
interplanetary magnetic field Bz values ranging between +/- 7 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels with a chance for
major storm periods at high latitudes for day one (01 October) of
the forecast period. The increase in activity is due to a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream rotating into a geoeffective
position. The coronal hole is expected to remain geoeffective days
two and three (02 and 03 October) of the forecast period. However,
activity should decrease to quiet to unsettled levels with a chance
for isolated active levels at high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Sep 066 Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 066/066/066 90 Day Mean 30 Sep 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 020/025-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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