Viewing archive of Monday, 6 October 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Oct 06 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
A slow moving CME off the west limb was observed in C2 imagery
beginning at 05/1946Z. The CME is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels all three days of the forecast
period (07 - 09 October).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Oct to 09 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Oct 067 Predicted 07 Oct-09 Oct 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 06 Oct 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct to 09 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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