Viewing archive of Sunday, 26 October 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Oct 26 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk
remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. Solar wind observations
from the ACE spacecraft show a steady increase in velocity from
around 290 km/s to 390 km/s between 26/0400Z to 26/0800Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for 27 October. Quiet to unsettled
levels with isolated active conditions are expected for 28 October.
Predominately unsettled levels with isolated active periods, and
possible isolated minor storm conditions at high latitudes, are
forecast for 29 October. The increase in activity is due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream rotating into a
geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Oct 067 Predicted 27 Oct-29 Oct 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 26 Oct 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct 005/005-007/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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