Viewing archive of Tuesday, 4 November 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Nov 04 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1007 (N36W52) produced a
C1.0 flare at 0330Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 1007 has a chance of producing another C-class
flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days one and two (05-06 November).
Unsettled to active conditions are expected on day three (07
November) due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed solar wind
stream.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Nov 068 Predicted 05 Nov-07 Nov 069/069/069 90 Day Mean 04 Nov 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov 005/005-005/008-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 50% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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