Viewing archive of Friday, 19 December 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Dec 19 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained
spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels for 20 - 21 December. Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected for 22 December. The increase in
activity is forecast due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Dec 068 Predicted 20 Dec-22 Dec 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 19 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec 000/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec 005/005-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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AR 13932 20Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1361AR 3928 6Strong far side CME 338Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1751
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