Viewing archive of Sunday, 21 December 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Dec 21 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained spotless. Please note: the observed Penticton 10.7 cm flux of 69 is estimated today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 22 - 23 December. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on 22 December and affect the field through the 23rd. Mostly quiet conditions are expected by 24 December.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Dec 069
  Predicted   22 Dec-24 Dec  069/069/069
  90 Day Mean        21 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Dec  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec  010/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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