Viewing archive of Sunday, 21 December 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Dec 21 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained
spotless. Please note: the observed Penticton 10.7 cm flux of 69 is
estimated today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 22 - 23 December. A recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into a
geoeffective position on 22 December and affect the field through
the 23rd. Mostly quiet conditions are expected by 24 December.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Dec 069 Predicted 22 Dec-24 Dec 069/069/069 90 Day Mean 21 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Dec 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec 010/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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