Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 January 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Jan 14 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity continued very low. Region 1010 (N18W33) decayed to a now spotless plage. The days most noteworthy event occurred near 1500 UTC when remnants of a high latitude filament were seen to lift from the disk in EIT, spawning a CME from East Limb. However, magnetic field data show no obvious enhancement of the fields in this area. Little else of interest occurred.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity will persist at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to slightly unsettled. A Sudden Impulse, possibly related to a faint CME on January 9, measured 13 nt at Boulder. It occurred at 0121 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Jan 071
  Predicted   15 Jan-17 Jan  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        14 Jan 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Jan  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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