Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 January 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Jan 14 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity continued very low. Region 1010 (N18W33)
decayed to a now spotless plage. The days most noteworthy event
occurred near 1500 UTC when remnants of a high latitude filament
were seen to lift from the disk in EIT, spawning a CME from East
Limb. However, magnetic field data show no obvious enhancement of
the fields in this area. Little else of interest occurred.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity will persist at very
low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to slightly unsettled. A Sudden
Impulse, possibly related to a faint CME on January 9, measured 13
nt at Boulder. It occurred at 0121 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jan 071 Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 14 Jan 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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