Viewing archive of Wednesday, 11 February 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Feb 11 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was very low. A B1 flare occurred at
10/2311Z from newly assigned Region 1012 (S06E62). The new region is
a simple, A-type sunspot group. No other activity of note occurred
during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next two days (12-13 February). An
increase to unsettled with a chance for active periods is expected
for the third day (14 February) in response to a favorably
positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Feb 070 Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 11 Feb 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 000/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 005/005-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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