Viewing archive of Wednesday, 11 February 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Feb 11 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. A B1 flare occurred at 10/2311Z from newly assigned Region 1012 (S06E62). The new region is a simple, A-type sunspot group. No other activity of note occurred during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next two days (12-13 February). An increase to unsettled with a chance for active periods is expected for the third day (14 February) in response to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Feb 070
  Predicted   12 Feb-14 Feb  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        11 Feb 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb  000/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Feb  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb  005/005-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%35%
Minor storm01%01%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%35%
Minor storm01%01%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%10%

All times in UTC

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