Viewing archive of Friday, 20 February 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Feb 20 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 051 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet to unsettled levels on days
one and two of the forecast period (21 - 22 February). Isolated
active periods are possible on 21 February. This increase in
activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream that
is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position. By day three
(23 February), mostly quiet conditions will prevail.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Feb 069 Predicted 21 Feb-23 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 20 Feb 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb 000/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb 012/012-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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