Viewing archive of Friday, 27 February 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Feb 27 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 058 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Unspotted Region 1013 (N26W19) produced an A3 x-ray event at 27/0714Z with a subsequent slow moving, asymmetric CME first observed in LASCO C2 imagery lifting off the NW limb at 27/0906Z. A 9 degree filament located at S38W46 was observed to have lifted off the disk between 26/2358Z to 27/1423Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period observed at middle latitudes at 27/1200Z. This activity was most likely produced by a low-latitude extension of the southern polar coronal hole. During the summary period, solar winds speed gradually increased from about 400 km/s to near 650 km/s by 27/1200Z and maintained that velocity through the end of the period. During the elevated portion of the high speed flow, the Bz component of the IMF did not vary much beyond +/- 5 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet for the next three days (28 February - 02 March). The CME mentioned earlier is not expected to be geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Feb to 02 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Feb 069
  Predicted   28 Feb-02 Mar  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        27 Feb 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Feb  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb to 02 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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