Viewing archive of Saturday, 18 April 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Apr 18 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 108 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Apr 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours. The visible disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Observations from the ACE spacecraft show solar wind speeds gradually increased through the period from about 400 km/s to near 550 km/s with IMF Bz fluctuations around +/- 5nT, all due to continued effects from a coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for 19 - 20 April as the coronal hole high speed stream will have rotated out of a geoeffective position. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for 21 April due to a recurrent enhancement in solar wind velocities.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Apr to 21 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Apr 070
  Predicted   19 Apr-21 Apr  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        18 Apr 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Apr  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Apr  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr  005/005-005/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Apr to 21 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%15%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%20%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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