Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 June 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Jun 24 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours. Region 1023 (S23E01) continues to be the only spotted region on the disk and was stable and quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the past 24 hours. In particular, active periods were observed between 0300-0900Z and 1800-2100Z. Solar wind signatures showed a change to slightly disturbed conditions beginning around 0300Z and lasting through the period: the magnetic field intensity increased, the Bz component of the solar wind showed occasional moderate fluctuations with peak negative values around -10 nT early in the day, and around -20 nT later in the day. In addition the spiral angle phi indicated two possible sector boundary changes. During the last 12 hours of the period solar wind velocity was gradually increasing. The signatures late in the day were consistent with the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally unsettled with a chance for active periods for the first day (25 June) as the current disturbance continues. Activity levels are expected to decline to generally quiet levels for the second and third days (26-27 June).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jun to 27 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Jun 067
  Predicted   25 Jun-27 Jun  068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        24 Jun 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Jun  012/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun to 27 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%05%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%05%05%
Minor storm15%01%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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