Viewing archive of Sunday, 28 June 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Jun 28 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected. The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Active levels occurred after 28/1700Z. ACE solar wind data indicated the active levels were associated with periods of increased velocities (peak 426 km/sec at 28/2042Z), sustained southward IMF Bz (minimum -12 nT at 28/1917Z), and enhanced IMF Bt (peak 12 nT at 28/1918Z); all of which were associated with a favorably positioned coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at predominantly quiet levels with a chance for unsettled levels through the period (29 June - 01 July).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jun to 01 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Jun 067
  Predicted   29 Jun-01 Jul  067/067/067
  90 Day Mean        28 Jun 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Jun  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun to 01 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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