Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 July 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Jul 09 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours. Region 1024 (S09W65) was quiet and stable as it approached the west limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. Solar wind started to increase at approximately 1700Z due to coronal hole effects. This resulted in an unsettled period for 1800Z to 2100Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected be quiet on day one (10 July). Day two (11 July) is expected to be quiet to unsettled due to possible coronal hole effects. Day three (12 July) is expected to be quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Jul 069
  Predicted   10 Jul-12 Jul  069/069/068
  90 Day Mean        09 Jul 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul  003/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Jul  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul  005/005-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%10%05%
Minor storm01%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%10%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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