Viewing archive of Monday, 13 July 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Jul 13 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected. The visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. Field activity increased to unsettled levels after 13/1200Z. ACE solar wind data indicated a coronal hole high-speed stream commenced around 13/1200Z. Velocities gradually increased after 13/1200Z and reached a peak of 505 km/sec at 13/2029Z. Intermittent periods of southward IMF Bz occurred beginning around mid-period (minimum -9 nt at 13/1309Z).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (14 July). Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels for the balance of the period (15 - 16 July).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jul to 16 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Jul 067
  Predicted   14 Jul-16 Jul  067/067/067
  90 Day Mean        13 Jul 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Jul  006/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul  007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul to 16 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%05%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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