Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 July 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Jul 15 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares have occured. The visible disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low for the next three days (16-18 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels over the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds decayed from around 530 km/s to near 425 km/s throughout the day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (16-18 July).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jul to 18 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Jul 067
  Predicted   16 Jul-18 Jul  067/067/067
  90 Day Mean        15 Jul 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul  006/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Jul  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul to 18 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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