Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 July 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Jul 15 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares have occured.
The visible disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low for the next three days (16-18 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels over the
past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds decayed from around 530 km/s to
near 425 km/s throughout the day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (16-18 July).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jul to 18 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jul 067 Predicted 16 Jul-18 Jul 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 15 Jul 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul to 18 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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