Viewing archive of Tuesday, 4 August 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Aug 04 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours. The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for isolated active periods on days one and two of the forecast period (05 - 06 August) as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective. Day three (07 August) is expected to be quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Aug to 07 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Aug 066
  Predicted   05 Aug-07 Aug  067/067/067
  90 Day Mean        04 Aug 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug  007/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Aug  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug  007/007-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug to 07 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%10%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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