Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 August 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Aug 15 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels during days 1 - 2 (16 - 17 August). Activity is expected to increase to unsettled levels on day 3 (18 August) as a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream begins to disturb the field.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Aug 068
  Predicted   16 Aug-18 Aug  068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        15 Aug 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Aug  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug  005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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