Viewing archive of Tuesday, 18 August 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Aug 18 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected. The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels on day one (19 August) in response to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on day two (20 August) as the CH HSS subsides. Quiet levels are expected on day three (21 August).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Aug 067
  Predicted   19 Aug-21 Aug  068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        18 Aug 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Aug  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug  015/012-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%10%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%15%
Minor storm20%10%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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