Viewing archive of Saturday, 21 November 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Nov 21 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1033 (N18E07) remains a Bxo-beta region. No significant flares were observed during the past 24 hours. The SOHO/C2 images observed a slow moving (around 200 km/s) Earth directed CME at 21/0755Z. EIT images also showed a wave pattern, associated with the CME, located in the vicinity of a filament channel around S40E30.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicate the continued influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed rose through the period from 430 -575 km/s with Bz fluctuations from -8 to +9 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (22-24 November).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Nov 076
  Predicted   22 Nov-24 Nov  078/078/078
  90 Day Mean        21 Nov 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov  002/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Nov  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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