Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 February 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Feb 25 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 056 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected. Regions 1050 (S19W40) and 1051 (N16E54) were quiet and stable Bxo/Beta groups. SOHO/LASCO images showed a faint, slow CME from the southeast quadrant late yesterday (estimated plane of sky velocity 348 km/sec). No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low during most of the period. However, there will be a chance for C-class flares beginning on day 3 (28 February) due to the expected return of old Region 1045 (N19, L=251).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels during days 1 - 2 (26 - 27 February). Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on day 3 (28 February) due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. The CME mentioned above is not expected to disturb the field during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Feb 083
  Predicted   26 Feb-28 Feb  082/080/082
  90 Day Mean        25 Feb 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Feb  002/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb  005/005-005/006-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%20%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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