Viewing archive of Saturday, 27 February 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Feb 27 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 058 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected
during the forecast period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low due to the return of old Region 1045 (N19, L251).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on days one and
two (28 February - 01 March) due to a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream. Activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels
on day three (02 March) as the effects of the coronal hole wane.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Feb to 02 Mar
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Feb 079 Predicted 28 Feb-02 Mar 084/084/084 90 Day Mean 27 Feb 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar 007/007-007/010-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb to 02 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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