Viewing archive of Friday, 12 March 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Mar 12 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 071 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity was low due to a C2/Sf flare at 12/1827Z from Region 1054 (N15E29). Region 1054 continues to show a slow growth trend. Region 1055 (S24W27) was quiet and mostly unchanged during the past 24 hours. A CME was observed on the east limb at about 11/2330Z and appeared to be associated with the eruption of a filament in the northeast quadrant.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Additional C-flares are likely from Region 1054. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event from this region.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled at mid-latitudes, with one active period at some stations from 0300-0600Z. The high latitudes observed quiet to active levels with some isolated storm periods between 0300-0600Z, and from 1200-1500Z. Solar wind velocities remained elevated through the period, generally ranging between 500-580 km/s. There appeared to be a decreasing trend during the last 4 hours of the period, with day-end speed values around 480 km/s. The solar wind signatures are consistent with a high speed stream from the southward extension of the northern polar coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods for the first day (13 March) due to persistence. Quiet to unsettled levels (with a chance for active periods) are expected on days two and three (14-15 March) due to possible effects from a recurrent solar sector boundary.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Mar 090
  Predicted   13 Mar-15 Mar  092/094/095
  90 Day Mean        12 Mar 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar  009/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Mar  009/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar  010/010-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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