Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 April 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Apr 15 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the last 24 hours. The visible disk is spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (16-18 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated active to minor
storm periods from 14/21-15/03Z due to recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream effects. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit briefly reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet for day one (16 April). Mostly quiet to
unsettled levels are expected for days two and three (17-18 April),
with possible isolated active periods at high latitudes on day three
(18 April). Increased activity levels are due to effects from the
CME observed on 13 April. .
III. Event Probabilities 16 Apr to 18 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Apr 075 Predicted 16 Apr-18 Apr 075/077/078 90 Day Mean 15 Apr 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr 005/005-007/007-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr to 18 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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