Viewing archive of Monday, 19 April 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Apr 19 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 109 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the last 24 hours. The visible disk remained spotless. A CME was noted on SOHO and STEREO imagery on the southwest limb at approximately 18/2300Z. The source of this activity is unknown, however, it may be related to a prominence located just behind the southwest limb. In addition, a second CME was observed at 19/1754Z on the SOHO C2 image. This activity is likely associated with a filament that lifted off the NW limb (approx. N40W85).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low for the next three days (20-22 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the last 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet for day one (20 April). Quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods are expected for days two and three (21-22 April). Activity is expected due to possible effects from a weak CME observed on 15 April and two coronal hole high speed streams rotating into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Apr 075
  Predicted   20 Apr-22 Apr  079/080/082
  90 Day Mean        19 Apr 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Apr  001/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Apr  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr  005/005-010/010-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%15%25%
Minor storm01%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%25%30%
Minor storm05%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

All times in UTC

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