Viewing archive of Friday, 7 May 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 May 07 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1069 (N42W67) produced a
C2/Sf flare at 07/0742Z as well as isolated low-level B-class
flares. Region 1069 continued to gradually decay, but maintained a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration through most of the period. No new
regions were assigned.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
during days 1 - 2 (08 - 09 May) with a slight chance for an isolated
M-class flare from Region 1069. Activity is expected to decrease to
very low levels on day 3 (10 May) as Region 1069 rotates out of
view.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE
solar wind measurements indicated Earth remained under the influence
of a subsiding coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind velocities
gradually decreased from 565 to 448 km/sec during the period. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels during most of the summary period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (08 -
09 May) with a chance for active levels in response to recent CME
activity. Field activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet
levels on day 3 (10 May).
III. Event Probabilities 08 May to 10 May
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 May 079 Predicted 08 May-10 May 078/076/075 90 Day Mean 07 May 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May 006/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 010/012-010/012-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May to 10 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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