Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 May 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 May 13 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Plage Region 1068 (S19W50) produced a B2 flare at 13/0355Z. The visible disk remained spotless. No new regions were assigned.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low through the period (14 - 16 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels through the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 (14 May). Field activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels during days 2 - 3 (15 - 16 May) due to a coronal hole high-speed wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 14 May to 16 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 May 069
  Predicted   14 May-16 May  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        13 May 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 May  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 May  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May  005/005-007/007-007/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May to 16 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%15%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%20%20%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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