Viewing archive of Thursday, 20 May 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 May 20 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 20 May 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. The visible disk
remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled with one isolated
active period at 20/0300Z. Solar wind data from ACE indicated a
steady decay in velocity from 525 km/s to 475 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period
possible during day one (21 May). Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected on days two and three (May 22-23) as the coronal hole high
speed stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 21 May to 23 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 May 069 Predicted 21 May-23 May 070/072/072 90 Day Mean 20 May 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 May 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 May 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May 008/008-006/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 May to 23 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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