Viewing archive of Monday, 24 May 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 May 24 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The STEREO and SOHO/LASCO imagery observed a CME today originating from the filament channel located around N15W32. This event was first observed on the C2 imagery around 24/1406Z. The latest analysis indicated its signature as a partial halo CME. A long duration B1 flare at 24/1446Z was also associated with this event. Region 1072 (S15W22) has decreased slightly in white light areal coverage and sunspot count and is a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region 1072.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet for the first two days (25-26 May). Unsettled to active conditions, with isolated minor storm levels, are expected on day three (27 May). This increase is expected due to the CME activity of 23-24 May.
III. Event Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 May 073
  Predicted   25 May-27 May  076/076/078
  90 Day Mean        24 May 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 May  000/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 May  001/002
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May  005/005-005/005-015/017
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%30%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%35%
Minor storm01%01%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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