Viewing archive of Wednesday, 26 May 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 May 26 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 26 May 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. Region 1072 (S15 W52) has decayed to a unipolar H type group. No flares were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be initially quiet. An increase to unsettled to active levels with a slight chance for minor storm periods is expected around mid-day on day one (May 27), due to the arrival of the CME observed on 23 May. Continued active levels with a slight chance for minor storm periods are expected on day two (May 28) and continuing through day three (May 29), with the arrival of the CME observed on 24 May.
III. Event Probabilities 27 May to 29 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 May 072
  Predicted   27 May-29 May  075/076/078
  90 Day Mean        26 May 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 May  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 May  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May  015/015-020/022-018/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May to 29 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%50%40%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%50%45%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm15%15%10%

All times in UTC

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